Global consumption of coffee should not suffer substantially due to the crisis in the global economy, it could have some impact in certain special ranges of coffee, said Wednesday April 8 executive director of the International Coffee Organization, ICO, Nestor Osorio.
In contrast, in markets where coffee consumption is not sufficiently anchored habit, as in emerging countries, it could be experienced "some kind of reduction" in demand, he admitted.
Osorio said the analysis show that demand, whose growth rate is 2.5% annually maintain its current momentum and an upward trend.
"Every year we consume extra two million bags of coffee and we are approaching 130 million bags annually worldwide," he said at a meeting on commodities organized by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, UNCTAD, in Geneva.
The head of the ICO said that this year there will be a shortfall in production due to the characteristic two-year cycle of Brazilian coffee, which crops are immediately followed by high production rates.
He noted that the global deficit could be around 10%, which will add a unique situation: the producers do not have enough reserves.
To illustrate the importance of this factor, Osorio reported that "30 years ago Brazil had reserves equivalent to 25% of the world, but now has nothing, and the same happens in other countries."
"In conclusion, global production of 125 million bags of coffee, a consumption of 130 million and only 20 million in inventories of importers implies that the balance between supply and demand is very precarious," he said.
Under these conditions, "any incident, such as frost in Brazil or a severe drought here or there could strangle the market and coffee prices skyrocket."
Speaking at the meeting of the UNCTAD, Osorio said that another "challenge" that will likely face in the coffee business will have to do with the choice between "food or energy."
That is, the use of land to grow crops for biofuels .
"Here I see a difficult situation in terms of sustainability for products such as coffee or cocoa," he said, explaining once that there is "the possibility that areas where coffee is grown now be replaced with crops ranging for food or energy ".
This is a "real threat" involving mainly Brazil and Africa, where coffee is grown on flat surfaces and can be a little less profitable.
Brazil is currently the world's largest producer of coffee, accounting for 36 percent of the market and Colombia has 8 percent, while the rest of Latin America has a market share of 19 percent.
On the consumption side, Europe accounts for 38 percent, North America by 22 and Central and South America by 23 percent.
The global value of coffee exports was 15,200 million dollars in 2008, while the value of this market, ie if you add that cost him all the cups of coffee you drink in a year, is 90,000 million.

Future purchases

# Following the record high prices in New York Coffee, President Alvaro Uribe has proposed to promote future purchases of grain, especially October.
# Such a scheme, he noted, would allow producers to better recovery, and thus an advantage of high prices, in favor of economic recovery.